The JD(S) remains the elephant in the room, clinging to its relevance thanks to backing from the numerically significant Vokkaliga community. When Rahul Gandhi campaigns and introduces “national” elements criticising the Centre’s policies, he is yet to lose sight of the need to allow local issue to retain primacy. The stakes for the two parties are indeed very high. Karnataka has been the BJP’s gateway to the South since 1991 and it cannot afford the door being shut on it. Deve Gowda — and a similar response — must be read against this backdrop. Since 2014, state after state provided landslide mandates except Gujarat, where the BJP’s margin of victory was too close for comfort, and previously in Maharashtra, where the BJP contested polls on its own for the first time. In almost every election since 2014, issues which dominated the political discourse till he entered the arena paled into insignificance after Mr Modi’s blitzkrieg.

The chief minister, after providing a reasonably efficient government over the past five years which gave Karnataka a much-needed sense of political stability, has so far shown himself smarter than most incumbents facing the BJP onslaught.Karnataka’s six regions have so far not reverberated in unison on a single issue so far. The Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka has potential to play kingmaker and Mr Modi’s kind words for H.. The BJP’s campaign has been two-pronged — in the pre-Modi phase the emphasis was on local issues and the performance of the Siddaramaiah government, accusations of corruption, failure to generate jobs, control rising prices and the Lingayat conundrum. Mr Modi’s decision to stick to the proven formula of delegitimising the Congress and its leaders is indication of anti-incumbency against the Siddaramaiah government not being high.The verdict in Karnataka will demonstrate if Indian voters are still handing out decisive mandates or if the outcome in Gujarat was not an aberration, instead marking the return of closer contests even in bipolar states. A defeat here will not just stop the “drift” that envelops the BJP post-Gujarat, but push the Congress deeper into the crevice it fell into in 2014. A virtual decimation of the JD(S) — which will fashion a decisive mandate in favour of either of the two national parties — will indicate continuance of a single-issue poll.

The likelihood of the trend continuing is possibly the first challenge for the Congress as it has to prevent the emergence of Mr Modi as “the issue”. Consequently, Mr Modi is still groping for an issue that can decisively sway voters. The five southern states and the Union territory of Puducherry account for 131 Lok Sabha seats. The Prime Minister attacked Rahul Gandhi for his Italian heritage, indicating a lack of confidence in ousting the Congress on the basis of poll issues and thereby an old line of attack has been revived. Additionally, despite the Modi wave, the BJP won two seats less in 2014 than its tally in 2009.D. The likelihood of the trend continuing is possibly the first challenge for the Congress as it has to prevent the emergence of Mr Modi as “the issue”. Voters will decide if the polls are transitional or decisive. The moot question is whether voters continue viewing elections as a “referendum” of sorts on Mr Modi and his claims/promises or if they are willing to return to the era of “non-national” polls.The Congress is not hamstrung by this duality as its campaign remains state-specific. The state was not kind to Mr Modi in 2013 for when the state polls were held last, he had already been endorsed as the BJP’s de facto supremo and campaigned extensively.

This showed Mr Modi’s relatively poorer popularity in the South. The BJP treats every election uniformly, merely adding regional variants to its nationalistic spiel. Siddaramaiah’s ploy of announcing minority status for Lingayats has also added an element of mystery for there is no knowing at this stage how this will go down China wholesale machine screw anchors with the community and with others.Whether his adversaries like it or not, till campaigning ends next week, the Prime Minister’s every utterance carries the possibility of triggering multiple strands of political narrative. In Karnataka, this was attempted over two years on the legacy of Tipu Sultan, but sensing the state icon’s religious identity not having the capacity to whip up prejudice towards Muslims, the issue has been underplayed during elections. In the present situation it may indicate if the people want to give Mr Modi another term or not. Already, its wooing of Mr Deve Gowda stands in sharp contrast to the BJP’s deteriorating ties with its allies. But the second phase, now unfolding, will see state issues being relegated to the background and there is no knowing if this will play out for the BJP’s benefit or not.

As in every relay race, where the anchor leg is reserved for the fastest or the most experienced team member, the BJP has once again handed the baton to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A decent performance, which may keep the Congress out of power, will paradoxically point towards the rising limitations of Mr Modi’s charisma.
So far, the Congress in Karnataka has disallowed any “nationalisation” of the election, contesting it on local issues. Being nice to other parties is not among Mr Modi’s core strengths and he would rather continue to be in the Ekla Chalo Re mould. He referred to “Karnataka’s voice” as a metaphor for state-specific programmes on which the BJP is a shade short.Karnataka’s voters are presented with two clear choices.